Counterfactual Thinking - August 11, 2008

Many of my clients struggle with what is known as Counterfactual Thinking. Also known as a "What if?" approach to life, some people's minds almost seems programmed to sadly focus on events that never occurred. Very often I hear, "If I had only gotten this job I'd be happier," "if I had asked this woman out on a date life would be better," or "had I not gotten into that car accident I'd be in a much better spot." They assume that certain unrealized outcomes would have led to happiness, or at least to a greater sense of life satisfaction. This is due to our innate drive to seek out as much pleasure and self-actualization as possible.

Cognitive therapists will challenge this way of thinking and encourage clients to more consider all possible results - and hold contradictory ideas simultaneously (also known as Cognitive Dissonance) - not just happiness. For example, it doesn't cross many people's minds that the dream job might not have been as fulfilling as originally thought, or required too many hours, or would have simply caused them to miss the next job opportunity that came or will come along. They don't consider that if they had gone out with that woman they might have gotten married and then suffered a painful divorce, or not have met a current or future partner. Could the car accident have served as a wake-up call so the client drove a bit more safely and avoided the more tragic collision that might have occurred a week later? We can't state with certainty that any of these things would have been the result but the same can be said for the initial assumption: that life would be better. Fortunately, when clients begin let go of Counterfactual Thinking they start to focus more on what's in front of them rather than what is already over and out of their control.

Unfortunately, this type of thinking can be difficult to alter. New ways of thinking require practice to have positive results that are long-term. In fact, many clients reject the very notion that Counterfactual Thinking is, in fact, a bogus way of looking at the world. They can't get their minds around the idea that an unrealized outcome could possibly be a good thing.

When logic fails, therapists will sometimes utilize stories and parables to highlight therapeutic points. For years I couldn't come up with a good tale to highlight how problematic Counterfactual Thinking is. Most of my yarns involved me getting accepted to Harvard and becoming a world famous Psychologist who can pick the winning Powerball numbers daily, which would have probably precluded the client and I working together that very day. "And wouldn't that be just horrible??" I'd ask. Rarely did the idea of not having me as a therapist seem as unbearable as I made it out to be.

One day, however, a client told me an apparently famous story that she used to overcome Counterfactual Thinking. I've since shared it with good success:


A man in a village is given a horse. All of the people in the village tell him, "This is wonderful! You'll get so much more accomplished on your land with this horse."

The man says, "I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing."

The horse runs away a few weeks later. "Oh, this is awful," the people say. "Your friend and worker is gone."

The man says, "I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing."

A few days later his son finds not only the horse, but a half-dozen other stray horses and returns to the village with them. "Hurrah!" the visitors shout. "We are truly fortunate!"

Again the man says, "I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing."

Weeks later the son is thrown from one of the horses, breaking both legs, and the people are completely despondent. "Your poor son!" they say.

The man says "I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing."

While the son is recovering the village is attacked by a hostile neighbor. The village is able to defeat the enemy but some of the people are killed. "It's fortunate your son was unable to fight due to his legs. He could have been eliminated like some of the others."

And again, the man says "I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing."

"And so on, Dr. Dobrenski," she said.

When I asked her what that story meant to her she said, "The man doesn't assume that because something 'good' or 'bad' happens that similar consequences will follow. It might be good or bad in the moment but no one knows what will happen later because of it. When you look back on failures or bad luck you can't ever claim with perfect accuracy that your life would be better had the past been something other than what it is. You can only state that your life would be different. Whether it would be better or worse is something you'll never know."

You can't say it much better than that.